I am a financial analyst and my curiosity drove this quick excel analysis of how much a game like this might realistically make. Since I am not associated with any MMO, I don't have anything close to "hard" numbers. Just what my thoughts/opinions are. If anyone has a better idea...I'm all ears.
-estimated 5% lifetime retention of all new players. I realize some will last 3/6/9/12 months or years, I used this as an average (hopefully its conservative)
-$45 upfront cost, includes 3 months of free VIP membership, $15 per month sub cost
-I did not use the Kickstarter donators in the upfront cost of the game, but I did add them to the monthly sub numbers at the 5% subscription retention.
-estimated release in 1/1/2019 with 4,000 new players in the first 3 months, 2k in Jan and 1k for Feb and Mar, (so no sub cost at all during that time because of the 3 free months of VIP with purchase) and these are BESIDES those who donated to the kick-starter and second chance that will get the game for free. 500 new players each month for the remainder of the year, then 250 a month starting 2020 and after that forever. I hope those numbers are much higher...again, I was trying to be conservative.
-I estimated only 30% of FTP players buying from the cash shop, averaging $1/month each year forever
-This doesn't have the income from the Kickstarter or any costs/expenses as that I have no idea of.
-this takes into account when players join, so 30% of players buying the game in june that don’t sub after the initial 3 free VIP months would add 6$ to that years cash crop.
So, given all of that information...I really hope I am being super conservative. I'm not part of the MWM team and have 0 idea what their projections are or what the industry average is for games like this. This is 100% curiosity so if you have any different suggestions I would love to plug them in just to see.
I would have added more detail below but formatting it before saving doesn't keep that format, it scrunches everything together.
Year, Total, # of subs, # of FTP, Total Players
2019, $509,828, 551, 7949, 8500,
2020, $305,670, 738, 10949, 11688,
2021, $341,141, 888, 13949, 14838,
2022, $378,401, 1038, 16949, 17988,
2023, $415,661, 1188, 19949, 21138,
2024, $452,921, 1338, 22949, 24288,
2025, $490,181, 1488, 25949, 27438,
2026, $527,441, 1638, 28949, 30588,
2027, $564,701, 1788, 31949, 33738,
2028, $601,961, 1938, 34949, 36888,
2029, $639,221, 2088, 37949, 40038,
All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.