This has always confused me about MMOs, and video games as a whole I suppose. How do people get paid?
The math troubles me:
15$ a month * 10,000 subscribers (double the current fb likes) * 12 months a year = 1 800 000$ as a year's revanue.
For a:
20 person dev group: 90 000$ per person, but that's a ridiculously small team.
50 person dev group: 36 000$ per person, while seems like a reasonable size and average-ish income.
100 person dev group: 18 000 per person, which is getting rough.
Wildstar has about 40 000 subscribers, which would =
144 000$/person for a 50 person dev team.
City of Heroes had over 100 000 (I never knew this until looking it up before writing this, which makes for a great dev team.
Maybe I just don't understand the economics of it, but how many are we expecting to subscribe?
100 000 sounds out of reach short-term, 10 000 sounds reasonable for launch.
This, of course, doesn't figure micro purchases, which will be the main source of income from what I understand.
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Avatar by MikeNovember
The economic success of this game, post launch, depends on one factor more than most. The exposure. The Kickstarter reached over 5K people 5003 of which donated and many who didn't.
More people need to be exposed/excited about/invested in the game (regardless of revenue model) for this thing to take wings. And that means that while the devs have THEIR job to do making a great game; WE have an important job to do too.. getting the word out.
If we raised over $600K in a Kickstarter with 5000 people.. just imagine what we could have done if we'd reached that 10,000 person base
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I suppose it's important to note that these 5k people are some of the most dedicated to the game, even pre-launch, so a bit more can be expected. Still, idk how the numbers will work, and that's the question,
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Avatar by MikeNovember
I don't argue your use of 10,000 as a subscriber base for CoT. But the thing is, it is the total player base that is really going to matter. Whatever the amount of subscribers ends up being, the amount of non subbing players will most likely be significantly bigger. They may not be dropping $180/year on the game, and sure, some will buy the box and little more, but if you get the players invested in the game they will spend money on it.
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Since we(I)'ve been throwing numbers out, let's combine then:
10 000 subscribers for 15$ a month, for a year.
15 000 other players for 5$ a month, for a year.
10 000 * 15$/month * 12 months/year = 1 800 000$/year
15 000 * 5$/month * 12 months/year = 900 000$/year
total revenue = 2 700 000 / year
per person rate of...
...20 person dev team = 135 000 $/year
...50 person dev team = 54 000 $/year
...100 person dev team = 27 000 $/year
Which looks pretty good from what little I know about the nuts'n'bolts of this industry. To note, I'm assuming 5$ per non-subscriber will cancel out with some subscribers paying more than their base subscription.
How big is the Dev team anyway?
Usage note: can we agree to put monetary units like $ after the numeral, like with every other unit in existence. "$15" is read "fifteen dollars" not "dollars fifteen". Exception: "$ 2.5 million" since it doesn't use numerals.
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Avatar by MikeNovember
That's un-American! In America, we put the $ first! :p
Seriously, adopting the convention of putting the $ after the numbers will probably confuse readers. I'm not saying it's a bad idea, just that it's unconventional usage for those in the US.
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Hey, while I'm living in Canada, I'm an American! BORN AND RAISED! :p
I'm just a pragmatist first ;)
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Avatar by MikeNovember
A couple of other things to consider: Figuring salary is more than dividing revenue by number of employees. There are over business expenses including but not limited to taxes, licensing fees, tech budget, supplies, rainy day fund, customer service, marketing, public relations, travel expenses for business related events, infrastructure (like bandwidth, if we're ever at the multi-tens of thousands in connected players someone has to cover the bill for the networking involved), and profit. The company needs a profit if it ever wants to utilize funds for additional purposes. Infrastructure that doesn't quite apply to us at this time but may in the future could be a physical office location, which would then have to cover lease / rent, utilities, office supplies, janitorial service, security, mail clerks, and other non-production staff.
Indie devs can make anywhere from as little as 10k / yr (as a really rough standard for success discounting solo devs making much less) up to the industry standards with production business end salaries of traditional studios making over 100k / yr. Consider that we are one of a very few virtual development teams, one of the even fewer virtual dev teams making an MMO, and going the employee owned company route in the tumultuous game development industry, not to mention MMO failure rate makes MMO development a bit of a risk, and those of us who make the leap from volunteer to employee/owner are sure in for a wild ride.
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True of course, there're many more costs involved, which comes back to the question raised by the troubling math.
I'm still under the impression that Superhero MMOs is a bit of a niche, with fantasy games hogging all the customers.
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Avatar by MikeNovember
It is in the grand scheme of things. Ten million plus WoW players versus less than a million playing every Superhero MMO out there. Yeah...fantasy is king. I don't have a problem with that.
Now look at the movie industry. Comics are dying but superhero movies have seen tremendous strength in the last decade. Marvel is a juggernaut and as long as the movies are good that train is charted to 2025 and beyond. That's a whole generation growing up with superheroes plastered all over the movie and tv screen all the time just like comics were way back when.
The overhead on the game may be huge. I've never dealt with the kinds of hardware and software we're talking about but I imagine bandwidth, servers, software updates etc alone will be 10% of the budget or more. The fact that the now-virtual volunteers might someday have to be brick-and-mortar employees means a building, insurance, utilities etc. Another 10% or so I'd guess. Let's say after all is said and done 30% is overhead and the rest can be cut into salaries. Your numbers paint a pretty grim picture.
CoT cannot survive on 10,000 subs. No game could unless it was a 'run the servers, no updates' kind of operation. However why did CoH, what many of us claim to be the greatest game ever, only have 100,000 subs? In part it was the market. Lots of other games out there. In part it was the economy. Many game companies have not recovered from the 2008 downturn yet and that was 6 years ago. In part it was the game itself. The engine was old, buggy and in places impossible to change or update. Many of the early players were driven off by vast changes (like ED) or a lack of updates. Some basic features were never properly implemented. And, like it or not, the game was around for a long time and many of the players simply outgrew it. The game failed to grow with them (for a variety of reasons) and they moved on.
Now we come to CoT, our new Messiah...the Golden Child. Firstly, we have over 5000 hard-core followers (which is to say the contributed to the KS). Secondly, most (if not all) of the current Devs played the game and so will hopefully avoid some of the original teams mistakes. Hardware is better and therefore cheaper in some cases. Graphics are more readily available. Best of all, the air is thick with superheroes. That is why I'm so adamant about the game being open and fun for as many players as possible, especially new players. I don't want ANY player to be lost or confused about anything if they're willing to take a minute and do the tutorial.
We're going to make games fun again. We believe in what we're doing. That's why we'll succeed.
I remember when Star Wars was cool...a long, long time ago...
If you like a game and have graduated and have a job, consider being P2P. $15/mo. is nothing unless you are under financial duress. You spend that much on one dinner out for one.
I just don't get the fury some people have over "paying" a subscription fee. It's a killer for them. WTH.
Students or people in debt, fine. Be F2P. But if you have a real job, sign up and stop bitching about the lesser stuff of F2P. That's the realm for students.
You're all growed up now, and can pay a pittance for something you play 20-80 hours a month. Compare vs. movies or cable TV or anything else.
Yeesh. If I hear one more engineer whining about "I ain't paying monthly, what a ripoff, back to GW fer me!" I'm gonna scream.
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The very existence of the taunting tank irritates, for it requires idiotic AI that obeys the taunt.
BTW be wary of "lifetime subscriptions". Like exercise club scams in the 1980s, where do you think they will get the money to run in a few years? They spend it now. They don't invest it. It goes on today's bottom line.
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The very existence of the taunting tank irritates, for it requires idiotic AI that obeys the taunt.
Just throwing this out there, I'm a student ;) In biotechnology with a computer science minor. And you're half-right: F2P should be an option for us, on the other hand, I spend 15$/week on coffee (I really need to cut down :p ), 15$/mo is still within range of many students.
Comicsluvr, I'm still not verse in the markets here. You say "only 100 000"; is that a small number? 10 000 sounds like a pretty big number to me, my large university is only twice that. Is 100 000 small? Mid-range? or Good?
And, yes, the market is much better right now, for videogames and superheroes, but for superhero videogame MMOs?
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Avatar by MikeNovember
You may not get it, but then again, they don't get why you [i]would[/i] spend $15/month just to play a game.
My wife has an uncle. He could easily afford to have cable but doesn't because he "refuses to pay money for television". True, the days of cable being less than $20/month are long gone, but it has little to do with the cost. I've mentioned my friend before on the forums, he won't play any game with a monthly fee but he has dropped over $100/year on GW2. They aren't cheapskates, and they don't want something for nothing, some people just don't like paying a monthly fee for a service.
And you know what, letting these people in under F2P/hybrid models has been a boon to MMOs. It's been a few years now, but i remember Turbine announcing how much more money LotRO and DDO were making since going to F2P. And beyond financials, having more active players (even the free loaders) is better for the game experience as a whole.
My wife and I fully plan to be subscribers, but I was very pleased to hear early on that MWM was going with a buy the box model with an optional subscription. I [i]know[/i] it is going to bring in a lot more players, and in the end a lot more money to the game.
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Consider the global market. There are games that have millions of monthly subscribers. Other games, like Starcraft II, are simply buy once and play but have a huge online following that often pay a fee to play with others online (Korea has THREE cable channels to watch Starcraft. T.v. channels...to watch a GAME). So yes, I consider 100,000 subs to be small. If the game is global (no reason for it NOT to be), then figure the BILLIONS of potential players.
However, we have to look at numbers again. Say CoT rapidly rises to CoH's numbers of 100k subs. Considering the hue and cry when the game closed there is obviously passion in the playerbase so we'll start there. 100k subs at $15.00 per is a million and a half dollars a month income. (I'm going to assume that the cash from F2Players that buy stuff will offset the fact that many subbers buy blocks of 6 months or a year and get a discount.)
Working with the numbers I quoted above and assuming a HUGE overhead of 50% that's $750,000 per month income as salaries. That's 150 people at 5k each a month. I don't know what programmers get paid but 60k a year sounds pretty good to me. There's also NO WAY that the game will need 150 developers and support staff. So 100k subs at fifteen bucks each per month is a healthy number to insure the game lives and continues to grow in my estimation.
Will we get there overnight? Of course not. Will we get there in the first year? Maybe. As another poster said it's OUR job to stay loyal and keep the faith. We can hype the idea all we want but until we have something to show it's all just hype. The REAL work for us comes when things start to launch.
The costume creator from CoH was widely hailed as the best one in the game industry. Cot's will be better from all we've seen so far.
The playstyle (everything from casual RP to intense action) was also very popular. CoT will strive to achieve all this and more.
The world of CoH had a rich, detailed backstory. I have no doubt the Devs will provide that too.
When things get rolling our jobs as players will be to foster and promote the community. There will be a whole new batch of players out there peeking shyly around the corner wondering if it's safe to come in and play. We need to encourage them, answer their questions and help them along if thy need it. Mean actions need to be reported and the player suspended until they can learn to behave themselves in public. We need to form teams encouraging new players to join and be supportive of the learning process. As vets it's easy to forget all the times WE messed up when we were starting out. Driving potential players from the game benefits no one.
As veteran players it will fall to us to be the ambassadors. All the advertising in the world won't keep players in a game if they aren't having any fun.
I remember when Star Wars was cool...a long, long time ago...
That is all true. Pretty much regardless of product, word-of-mouth(key) is the BEST way to advertise. Us being brand advocates will bring in 25k within a few months at least.
From what people in my Comp.Sci. minor classes tell me, 60k is on the low end, with 70k being lower range. But that's B.Sc in Computer Science, not "programmer".
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Avatar by MikeNovember
Oh I have no problem with F2P as an option (though I do feel it has collapsed the industry, the way an idiot stands up in the front row of a concert, and people behind must stand, and so on, until everyone is on their feet instead of sitting comfortably.)
But I also directly and deliberately mock the attitude of your uncle as applied to a game you play maybe a hundred hours a month.
I paid for my car! Why do I have to keep paying for gas! RIPOFF!!!
I bought skis at the ski resort. Why do I have to buy a lift ticket every year. RIPOFF!!!
The business model is an ongoing concern with ongoing costs.
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The very existence of the taunting tank irritates, for it requires idiotic AI that obeys the taunt.